The electoral map as of September 13th, has 6 battleground states. They are: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Colorado and Virginia. The permutations and combinations to win the election are complex but much simpler for Barrack Obama than for John McCain. Aside from Florida and Virginia, Obama is leading in all other states. Virginia is a virtual toss-up.
For Obama, the following combinations will ensure victory:
1. Florida, Pennsylvania and any of the other 4 states
2. Florida, Ohio and any other of the other 4 states
3. Florida, Michigan and any of the other 4 states
4. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia,
5. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia
6. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio
7. Any combination of 3 states and Colorado
For McCain to win:
1. Florida, Ohio, Virginia
2. Florida, Michigan, Virginia, Colorado
3. Florida, Ohio, Michigan
4. Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania
5. Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania
6. Florida, Colorado and any two others
7. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania
8. If he doesn’t win Florida he must win 4 of the other 5 states.
The most interesting point is how Obama has managed to reshape the map in the Midwest. Indeed, even in the most conservative of Midwest states – Indiana, he is narrowly behind McCain. as noted by CNN columnist, Jack Cafferty, it all started one frigid night in Iowa. Nothing astonishing was supposed to occur. Hillary Clinton did not campaign vigorously as she thought her victory was locked up here. On that cold January night, the state of Iowa which is 95% White, decided that they had had enough of the Bush administration and they cast their support for a skinny black guy with a funny name. This sentiment has swept through the Midwest and the unlikely scenario of an African-American President is now a possibility.
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